Zero-Risk Bias
Preferring to eliminate a small risk entirely over a greater reduction of a larger risk.
Also known as: Zero Risk Preference, Certainty Bias
Category: Principles
Tags: cognitive-biases, psychology, decision-making, thinking, risk-management
Explanation
Zero-Risk Bias is the tendency to prefer the complete elimination of a risk over a larger reduction in overall risk, even when the latter option would prevent more harm. People are psychologically drawn to certainty and the comfort of knowing a particular risk has been completely removed, rather than dealing with the more abstract concept of reduced probability across a larger threat.
This bias stems from our difficulty in processing probabilities and our desire for psychological closure. Eliminating a small risk entirely feels more satisfying than reducing a larger risk by a greater amount because 'zero' has a special psychological appeal. For example, people might prefer to eliminate a 1% chance of harm over reducing a 10% chance to 4%, even though the second option prevents more expected harm.
Zero-Risk Bias has significant implications for policy-making, resource allocation, and personal decision-making. Regulatory agencies may focus on eliminating small, visible risks while ignoring larger but less salient dangers. To counter this bias, decision-makers should quantify risks and focus on expected value calculations rather than categorical thinking.
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