Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
A prediction that causes itself to become true through the expectation's influence.
Also known as: Expectation effects, Belief-creates-reality, Prophecy effect
Category: Concepts
Tags: psychology, beliefs, causation, expectations, behaviors
Explanation
A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that causes itself to become true - the expectation of an event influences behaviors that bring the event about. Identified by sociologist Robert K. Merton, the mechanism works through: expectation shaping behavior, behavior influencing outcomes, and outcomes confirming the original expectation. Classic examples include: bank runs (fear of failure causes withdrawal causes failure), performance expectations (expecting someone to fail causes treatment that leads to failure), and market prophecies (predicting a crash causes selling causes crash). Self-fulfilling prophecies can be: positive (believing success leads to effort leads to success) or negative (expecting failure leads to reduced effort leads to failure). Understanding the concept enables: recognizing when expectations are shaping outcomes, intentionally setting positive expectations, and breaking negative cycles. Related concepts include: Pygmalion effect, placebo effect, and confirmation bias. For knowledge workers, awareness of self-fulfilling prophecies helps: set constructive expectations for self and others, recognize when negative expectations are causing poor outcomes, and use positive expectations strategically.
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