Illusory Correlation
Perceiving a relationship between variables when none exists.
Also known as: False Correlation, Spurious Correlation Bias
Category: Cognitive Biases
Tags: cognitive-biases, cognition, psychology, thinking, statistics
Explanation
Illusory Correlation is a cognitive bias where people perceive a relationship between two variables when no such relationship actually exists, or they overestimate the strength of a relationship that does exist. This tendency is particularly strong when the events or characteristics are distinctive or memorable. For example, people might incorrectly believe that minority group members are more likely to commit crimes because both minority status and criminal behavior are statistically infrequent and therefore more memorable when they co-occur.\n\nThe phenomenon was first described by psychologists Loren and Jean Chapman in the 1960s while studying how clinicians interpreted psychological tests. They found that clinicians reported seeing correlations between test responses and diagnoses that simply did not exist in the data, but which matched their prior expectations. This demonstrates how illusory correlations can persist even among trained professionals, especially when they align with existing stereotypes or beliefs.\n\nIllusory correlation plays a significant role in the formation and maintenance of stereotypes, superstitions, and pseudoscientific beliefs. It helps explain why people might believe in the effectiveness of unproven treatments (they remember the times it worked and forget when it did not) or hold onto prejudiced views despite contrary evidence. Combating this bias requires careful attention to base rates, systematic data collection, and awareness that our intuitions about correlations are often unreliable.
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