Failure Rate
The proportion of attempts that result in failure, used to calibrate expectations and strategies.
Also known as: Base failure rate, Rejection rate, Success probability
Category: Concepts
Tags: failures, statistics, expectations, planning, strategies
Explanation
Failure rate is the proportion of attempts that result in failure, used to calibrate expectations, evaluate strategies, and normalize setbacks. Understanding base failure rates prevents: unrealistic expectations, premature quitting, and attributing system-level patterns to personal inadequacy. Examples of common failure rates: venture capital investments (~90% failure), job applications (~95%+ rejection), and scientific experiments (majority don't work). Knowing these rates helps: set realistic goals, plan for sufficient attempts, and maintain motivation through expected failures. Failure rates vary by: domain complexity, skill level, and market conditions. They can be influenced by: skill improvement, strategy changes, and market timing. Tracking personal failure rates enables: strategy evaluation, skill assessment, and realistic planning. A rising failure rate might indicate: inadequate skill for the challenge, poor strategy, or particularly difficult conditions. For knowledge workers, understanding failure rates means: researching base rates before starting, planning for statistically expected failures, and using failure rate trends to evaluate approaches rather than individual outcomes.
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