What category does Amara's Law belong to?

Amara's Law belongs to the "Principles" category in personal knowledge management and productivity.

What are the key topics related to Amara's Law?

Key topics related to Amara's Law include: technologies, mental-models, principles.

What are alternative names for Amara's Law?

Amara's Law is also known as: Amara effect, Technology adoption curve.

Amara's Law

We overestimate technology's short-term impact and underestimate its long-term impact.

Also known as: Amara effect, Technology adoption curve

Category: Principles

Tags: technologies, mental-models, principles

Explanation

Amara's Law states: 'We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.' This explains the hype cycle: initial excitement, disappointment when immediate transformation doesn't occur, then gradual but profound change over decades. Understanding Amara's Law helps calibrate expectations for new technologies (AI, blockchain) and reminds us that lasting change often comes slowly, then all at once.

Related Concepts

Lindy Effect
Paradigm Shifts
Hofstadter's Law

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